8 thoughts on “Draft Report Card Discussion Thread”
I’m still working thru the draft guide, but every year I’m just absolutely blown away by the quality of the analysis. I’ll never not appreciate what you do for this league…incredible stuff!!
I joked that I wanted a rebuttal but I actually agree with just about everything thing you said about my draft. I’ll just clarify a little about my strategy. I spent a little more than Jennings than I generally would want to, but I think what he does is a little underrated. Compared to what people thought he would be he’s not great, but overall is solid. And I just wasn’t excited about the CF crop in this year’s draft at all, but didn’t want to throw this season away by leaving such an important position to a minors pick. I wanted him for 10 and I paid 14. A rare stretch for me, but it was 4 bucks.
As to why so many OF’s, the answer is complicated. I think my “process” might be a little different than most. I probably value roster spots more than normal, which is why I’m constantly buying guys out and practically giving guys away the first week of Feb (Porcello, Herrerra, Kipnis, Belt, etc, etc). I’m constantly trying to build quality depth with upside at a great price. When I prepare for a draft I’ll lean towards positions of need, but when it comes down to it I’ll buy players that have the best upside. So with those two tenets in mind (roster spot is valuable, and take the highest upside guys at the right price regardless of position), my draft makes more sense.
In the last hour or so I had three spots open and needed relief pitchers with only three on my roster. The best remaining players on my list were guys like Joc Pederson, Michael Taylor, Chris Owings, Christian Vazquez. Guys that are WAY more valuable than a 6th or 7th inning reliever. So that’s why I have 6 outfielders: Stanton, Yelich, Harper, Pederson, Jennings and Taylor. If Pederson and Taylor were 1B, I would have Rizzo, Pederson and Taylor at 1B. But I can trade any of those guys for a 6th or 7th inning guy any time.
You can see the result of my “process” by looking at my roster. You won’t see guys over 35 bucks and you won’t see a bunch of roster filler at a buck. Virtually my entire roster is between 5-15 dollars. Hopefully this equals quality depth with upside all over the roster, and no roster filler. Hell, I’ve had years where I’ve had 75 unspent dollars because I’m obsessive about my process. I won’t overspend. Not saying it’s the best strategy, but it’s what fits my personality.
As for whether I thought about “going for it” the answer is not really. The one exception to my process is that if I have the team, I’ll spend on the right position to make a playoff team a Boot caliber team (ex., Jose last year). I didn’t make an exception this yr because my team was bit bad by injuries, and I know what my team is. I have important players with D and F ratings on my roster and others that I gave away. I’ll do my best to be a pain in the ass this year until the inevitable injury bug hits, but with better injury luck next year, my team has the makings and depth to be pretty special.
Yeah I agree with your process, and I agree with valuing roster spots as well (which is why i tend to be more aggressive with buyouts than most, though maybe not to the same degree as you). And absolutely you should be buying OF over RP in a rebuilding year. Still, I just had to nitpick a bit that I found it odd that you have a star caliber OF and drafted a bunch more, but those things can tend to work themselves out – if all 6 pan out you trade 2 of them for nice returns, and if only 3 work out well there’s your starting OF.
Absolutely. It was a valid observation and a legit ding on my grade. My pen is atrocious as a result. If I were going for it I might have saved at least one of those spots for a relief spot, and if I hadn’t done so I would’ve deserved a big ding.
Every year I compete for similar players with similar strategies with a couple owners (you’re one), so I’m not completely unique. But you have a $40 catcher, which would never, ever happen in Payette. So you’re definitely not as OCD as me. 🙂
Yeah well I was telling Ron tonight that Lucroy was a guy that I HAD to have. That card is unreal. I feel ok about him aging well too, he’s still in his prime, but yeah it was a risky signing beyond this year and definitely uncharacteristic as I am usually more conservative than that. But I had over 100 bucks and only 6 roster spots and I still left like 25 bucks on the table so I don’t feel bad for reaching for the guy I needed…
Sorry I spammed everyone with my commentary earlier. I wanted to follow up on my rebuttal: I respect Mike’s reviews immensely and use that to reflect on what I may have missed / team needs. We are so very lucky to have the big Mike brain at the top. To close, let me just say that In the past, I constantly attempted to underpay on guys I saw as sleepers or I would overpay a first year premium for young study up and comers who didn’t even have a full season (such as I did with Harvey). That strategy hasn’t worked, so this year I simply paid what I felt the player could deliver based on THIS years performance. That may bite me in the ass with Shoemaker and Santana, but if I get to the playoffs this year, It will be worth it. For 5 years I feel like I was constantly in some sort of rebuilding mode. It feels good to change things up and simply try to outbid on good players for this year. Good luck to everyone on a great 2015 campaign!
As for Cano he was the 1 guy I wanted in the draft… I wanted the lefty bat, I love OB%, Clutch and A dur. There was only 1 other decent 2B in the draft… If you can justify spending 42 on Lucroy when there were at least 3 other Ca’s that were decent… (Martin, Susuki, Montero)… I’m sure you can understand Cano.
My biggest error would be pre-draft… I should have released Chisenhall and M. Gonzalaz… then bought Longo and a better swing man with the $19 saved and the money I left on table… 8?
I fully believe Ortiz will have a solid year this year, then he’ll retire… so That contract shouldn’t hurt.
I too wanted McCrutchen … getting him would have changed my draft I went to 36 ish I think,,,,, Gordon was the only non platoon-ish OF I liked that could play some Def. Looking back this one may hurt. Incarte would have been close not sure what he went for,,, so ya that was a bad one.
Great job as usual Mike… but I think you are hard on me with your ratings… the all time blb winning team, 2 time champs… I must be doing something right… lol.
Thanks Mike… love the effort… look forward to proving your WAR chart.
Yeah I did acknowledge that $42 may have been rich for Lucroy, but I wanted him just like you wanted Cano. I think you got a great deal on Martin and said as much. I noticed that too about me always giving you bad ratings but then you going out and doing well anyway – kinda funny and kinda shows i don’t always know what I’m talking about 🙂
BEER LEAGUE BASEBALL 
I’m still working thru the draft guide, but every year I’m just absolutely blown away by the quality of the analysis. I’ll never not appreciate what you do for this league…incredible stuff!!
I joked that I wanted a rebuttal but I actually agree with just about everything thing you said about my draft. I’ll just clarify a little about my strategy. I spent a little more than Jennings than I generally would want to, but I think what he does is a little underrated. Compared to what people thought he would be he’s not great, but overall is solid. And I just wasn’t excited about the CF crop in this year’s draft at all, but didn’t want to throw this season away by leaving such an important position to a minors pick. I wanted him for 10 and I paid 14. A rare stretch for me, but it was 4 bucks.
As to why so many OF’s, the answer is complicated. I think my “process” might be a little different than most. I probably value roster spots more than normal, which is why I’m constantly buying guys out and practically giving guys away the first week of Feb (Porcello, Herrerra, Kipnis, Belt, etc, etc). I’m constantly trying to build quality depth with upside at a great price. When I prepare for a draft I’ll lean towards positions of need, but when it comes down to it I’ll buy players that have the best upside. So with those two tenets in mind (roster spot is valuable, and take the highest upside guys at the right price regardless of position), my draft makes more sense.
In the last hour or so I had three spots open and needed relief pitchers with only three on my roster. The best remaining players on my list were guys like Joc Pederson, Michael Taylor, Chris Owings, Christian Vazquez. Guys that are WAY more valuable than a 6th or 7th inning reliever. So that’s why I have 6 outfielders: Stanton, Yelich, Harper, Pederson, Jennings and Taylor. If Pederson and Taylor were 1B, I would have Rizzo, Pederson and Taylor at 1B. But I can trade any of those guys for a 6th or 7th inning guy any time.
You can see the result of my “process” by looking at my roster. You won’t see guys over 35 bucks and you won’t see a bunch of roster filler at a buck. Virtually my entire roster is between 5-15 dollars. Hopefully this equals quality depth with upside all over the roster, and no roster filler. Hell, I’ve had years where I’ve had 75 unspent dollars because I’m obsessive about my process. I won’t overspend. Not saying it’s the best strategy, but it’s what fits my personality.
As for whether I thought about “going for it” the answer is not really. The one exception to my process is that if I have the team, I’ll spend on the right position to make a playoff team a Boot caliber team (ex., Jose last year). I didn’t make an exception this yr because my team was bit bad by injuries, and I know what my team is. I have important players with D and F ratings on my roster and others that I gave away. I’ll do my best to be a pain in the ass this year until the inevitable injury bug hits, but with better injury luck next year, my team has the makings and depth to be pretty special.
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Yeah I agree with your process, and I agree with valuing roster spots as well (which is why i tend to be more aggressive with buyouts than most, though maybe not to the same degree as you). And absolutely you should be buying OF over RP in a rebuilding year. Still, I just had to nitpick a bit that I found it odd that you have a star caliber OF and drafted a bunch more, but those things can tend to work themselves out – if all 6 pan out you trade 2 of them for nice returns, and if only 3 work out well there’s your starting OF.
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Absolutely. It was a valid observation and a legit ding on my grade. My pen is atrocious as a result. If I were going for it I might have saved at least one of those spots for a relief spot, and if I hadn’t done so I would’ve deserved a big ding.
Every year I compete for similar players with similar strategies with a couple owners (you’re one), so I’m not completely unique. But you have a $40 catcher, which would never, ever happen in Payette. So you’re definitely not as OCD as me. 🙂
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Yeah well I was telling Ron tonight that Lucroy was a guy that I HAD to have. That card is unreal. I feel ok about him aging well too, he’s still in his prime, but yeah it was a risky signing beyond this year and definitely uncharacteristic as I am usually more conservative than that. But I had over 100 bucks and only 6 roster spots and I still left like 25 bucks on the table so I don’t feel bad for reaching for the guy I needed…
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Sorry I spammed everyone with my commentary earlier. I wanted to follow up on my rebuttal: I respect Mike’s reviews immensely and use that to reflect on what I may have missed / team needs. We are so very lucky to have the big Mike brain at the top. To close, let me just say that In the past, I constantly attempted to underpay on guys I saw as sleepers or I would overpay a first year premium for young study up and comers who didn’t even have a full season (such as I did with Harvey). That strategy hasn’t worked, so this year I simply paid what I felt the player could deliver based on THIS years performance. That may bite me in the ass with Shoemaker and Santana, but if I get to the playoffs this year, It will be worth it. For 5 years I feel like I was constantly in some sort of rebuilding mode. It feels good to change things up and simply try to outbid on good players for this year. Good luck to everyone on a great 2015 campaign!
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As for Cano he was the 1 guy I wanted in the draft… I wanted the lefty bat, I love OB%, Clutch and A dur. There was only 1 other decent 2B in the draft… If you can justify spending 42 on Lucroy when there were at least 3 other Ca’s that were decent… (Martin, Susuki, Montero)… I’m sure you can understand Cano.
My biggest error would be pre-draft… I should have released Chisenhall and M. Gonzalaz… then bought Longo and a better swing man with the $19 saved and the money I left on table… 8?
I fully believe Ortiz will have a solid year this year, then he’ll retire… so That contract shouldn’t hurt.
I too wanted McCrutchen … getting him would have changed my draft I went to 36 ish I think,,,,, Gordon was the only non platoon-ish OF I liked that could play some Def. Looking back this one may hurt. Incarte would have been close not sure what he went for,,, so ya that was a bad one.
Great job as usual Mike… but I think you are hard on me with your ratings… the all time blb winning team, 2 time champs… I must be doing something right… lol.
Thanks Mike… love the effort… look forward to proving your WAR chart.
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Yeah I did acknowledge that $42 may have been rich for Lucroy, but I wanted him just like you wanted Cano. I think you got a great deal on Martin and said as much. I noticed that too about me always giving you bad ratings but then you going out and doing well anyway – kinda funny and kinda shows i don’t always know what I’m talking about 🙂
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Or do you know more than you want to reveal?
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